Economist Andreas Lehnert, the One Jerome Powell Turned to ...

Economist Pete Surda explains why Litecoin and other Bitcoin competitors may not be able to compete long-term

Economist Pete Surda, who completed his master's thesis on Bitcoin last year, explains his view of Bitcoin-competitors:
The future of Bitcoin
First I will formulate a "rule of thumb" for how I think the network effect behaves under competition, and then I'll explain...:
The example Patrik uses are P2P protocols. Let's take a look at the history of the leaders (I'm approximating):
There is nothing unusual here. All this is perfectly reasonable in hindsight. Purists might argue that Napster shut down because it lost a trial and that's not an endogenous failure, but clearly if a leader wants to keep its leading position, it needs to be able to resists the law, i.e. the resistance, or lack of it, is an endogenous property. We can also note that the newer leaders were increasingly less centralised and more resistant to legal action: while Napster was shut down with a single lawsuit, BitTorrent has several unrelated trackers, and also DHT, so a shutdown of one company has little effect on all users.
Furthermore, as the old leaders do not provide an technological advantage against Bittorrent, they are unlikely to take leading position again. What would take a leading position is something with a significant technological advantage over BitTorrent. At the moment there is no visible challenger. We could say that the technology matured...
Now, how do we apply that to Bitcoin? The various altchains are, in my opinion, too similar to Bitcoin . None of them provides a meaningful technological superiourity. Therefore, I expect Bitcoin to remain the leader [OP: emphasis mine]. If something challenges Bitcoin, it would be something with meaningful technological superiourity. Furthermore, the relevant factor that approximates "market share" isn't really the market capitalisation. Rather, it's liquidity. Even if one of the cryptocurrencies bubbles up and overtakes, unit per unit, the price of Bitcoin, it still won't overtake Bitcoin unless it also overtakes its liquidity. And that takes much longer to build up than just one bubble.
Furthermore, while people might multihome different cryptocurrencies (i.e. to use them in parallel, the costs are relatively low, so it's not a big problem), in the end they still use one standard for economic calculation. Nowadays this is typically their national fiat money. Even if then every cryptocurrency user would multihome, as their industry sector moves from fiat to cryptocurrency, they would choose one of them to do economic calculation, and then there would be a convergence on this level, and this would play out as the network effect...
Competition under the network effect does not behave erratically, even if the people involved might. While switches in the leading position can occur, they are, within reasonable limits, predictable. More precisely, we can reasonably predict what won't happen. Altchains are unlikely to displace Bitcoin, due to path dependence.
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Buiter Says Bitcoin Is Crazier Than the Tulip Bubble

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