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Not just Bitcoin - but all virtual currencies.. Is it just me or is it goddamn near impossible to 'verify identity' now?
When I originally started trading Bitcoin, you had almost no choice but to use Dwolla and MtGox. Then you had options with Paypal and various other exchanges. Then, some fucking US financial regulator called everyone 'money transmitters' and made everyone jump through hoops to buy a Bitcoin. You basically had to send all your personally identifiable information in order to just buy one. It was a huge turn off to anyone new because they thought it Bitcoin was a scam. Fast forward to now.. Bitcoin is kicking ass. Ethereum is kicking ass. The whole fiat financial market looks like it's living in the past. And now.. people like me that have been verified on Coinbase and Gemini for years all of a sudden need to 're-verify' identity.. and of course none of it works. Responses from Coinbase support are completely automated and say to try over and over (despite every method failing.) Gemini just keeps asking me to upload documents and submit them for review. Well.. how about you review my driver's license and passport I submitted multiple times already? My fiancee can't verify. My parents can't verify. My friends can't verify. Is this the new way 'TPTB' hold back virtual currency or am I just being paranoid? I mean.. it's gotta be perfectly normal that I somehow got unverified and cannot re-verify and no one I know can verify, right?
I missed first bitcoin boom cause it was near impossible to me buying bitcoins in 2013, and now in 2016 is still so hard...
I tried to buy bitcoins in 2013, I even bought a linux pc with something to mine coins, my problem was AND STILL IS sell and buy bitcoins for someone with italians documents that live and work in France. I can't be reconized as french, if they reconize me as italian (like my IDs documents and nationality says) they can't reconize my french bank or credit card. Note that in EU I'm an european in france like a french and I can even vote for some french elections. I think I'm one of the first people that used internet in italy and I buy everything online since 2001/02, I was a webdesigner and now a system architect, I can compile Gentoo but it's a pain in the ass trade bitcoin/euro... Every 18 months when I say to myself, let's try again... I resume my 121314 accounts with differents sellers (every website you know) and try to set something, same old shit. Even worse. This is really frustrating...
In September, this decentralized exchange (DEX) overtook Coinbase in trading volume:
A) Uniswap B) Aave C) Compound D) Both A and B Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and September Winners and Losers
2020 Top 10 Rank Lots of movement this month: six out of the Top Ten changed positions in September. BCH climbed one from #6 to #5 and BNB made a big move from #10 to #6. Going the opposite direction were BSV, EOS, and Tezos, dropping one, two, and four places respectively. The big story though, at least for anyone who’s been watching crypto for a while, was the ejection of Litecoin from the Top Ten. In just 30 days, LTC fell five places from #7 to #12. For some context, Litecoin’s absence from the Top Ten is a Top Ten Experiment first. It is also the first time since CoinMarketCap has tracked crypto rankings that Litecoin has not has not held a spot in the Top Ten. Drop outs: after nine months of the experiment, 30% of the cryptos that started 2020 in the Top Ten have dropped out. LTC, EOS, and Tezos have been replaced by ADA,LINK, and most recently, DOT. September Winners – Winner, singular: BNB was the only crypto to finish in the green, finished up +25% for the month, and gained four places in the rankings. A very good month for Binance Coin. September Losers – Tezos was the worst performing crypto of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio, losing nearly a third of its value, down -31% for the month. LTC also had a bad month, losing -24% and dropping out of the Top Ten. Since COVID-19 has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against each other, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses nine months into the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment: Wins/Losses ETH is in the lead three monthly Ws, followed by Tether and Tezos with two wins each. Even though it is up +79% since January 1st, 2020, BSV has the most monthly losses: it has been the worst performing crypto of the group four out of the first nine months in 2020.
Overall update – ETH maintains strong lead, followed by BNB. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.
Ethereum remains firmly in the lead, up +187% on the year. Thanks to a strong month for BNB and a weak month for Tezos,Binance Coin has overtaken XTZ for second place, and is now up +109% in 2020. Discounting Tether (no offense Big-T), EOS (+4%) is the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are in positive territory.
Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:
The overall crypto market lost about $35B in September, ending the month up +85% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020. Despite a rough month, this is the second highest month-end level since the 2020 Top Ten Experiment started nine months ago.
Monthly BitDom - 2020 BitDom ticked up slightly this month, but is still lower than it has been for most of the year. As always, a low BitDom reflects a greater appetite for altcoins. For context, the BitDom range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2020 has been roughly between 57% and 68%.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:
After an initial $1000 investment on January 1st, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,536, up +56%. This is the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but not by much: the 2019 Top Ten came in at +54% in September. Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along: Monthly ROI - 2020 Top Ten Even during the zombie apocalypse blip in March, the 2020 Top Ten has managed to end every month so far in the green (for a mirror image, check out the all red table you’ll find in the 2018 experiment). The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between a low of +7% in March and high of +83% in August. So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for the three portfolios: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $3,340 ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564). That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month. Lost in the numbers? Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: Combined ROI - UP +11% That’s a +11% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020. But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While many have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have started in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (Big L, no pressure, but if you don’t claw yourself back in the Top Ten by January 2021, you’re out of the club). Let’s take a look: Three Year Club At this point in the Experiments, Ethereum (+104%) would have easily returned the most, followed by BTC (+77%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down nearly a third at -31%. So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P slipped a bit from an all time high in August and is now up just +5% in 2020. Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +56%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,563. That same $1k I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1050 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 instead. That’s a $513 difference on a $1k investment, one of the largest gaps in favor of crypto all year. But that’s just 2020. What about in the longer term? What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1260 today
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1350 today
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1050 today
So, taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660. That $3,660 is up +22%since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time. That’s an 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500 and breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios. For those keeping track or unable to see the table above: that’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. two monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P back in June.
September saw losses for both traditional and crypto markets, but crypto got hit harder. What can we expect for the rest of 2020? The Neverending Year is entering the final quarter and is not finished with us yet: a lot can and will happen in the remaining months. More volatility is no doubt to come as we enter the final stretch of a truly unpredictable and exhausting year. Buckle up. Stay healthy and take care of yourselves out there. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.
I’m a commentator for a tournament of nightmares. I’m not sure the participants are willing.
You’d think being a psychiatric ward for 38 months would be enough to deter a guy from ever going back to a sport that involves watching human beings at the height of their physical prowess beat the living shit out of each other. Sometimes regulated, sometimes not. But, here I am, fresh outta the loony bin and reading the most unusual advertising slogan I’d ever laid eyes on; “The most terrifying tournament has come around once again! Conquer your fears in theNFC*…* literally.” This was the business card that accompanied my black envelope as it was handed to me on the discharge ward by a well dressed and gangly fella with an uncomfortable wide smile. He didn’t say much of anything, just that his name was “Watson” before bowing and holding up the envelope. “Heh, like the butler, right?” I said, taking the envelope from his plasticine hands. His smile ripples across his face and he nods slowly, his perfect hair unmoving in the strong wind before he turns on his heel and walks back to the black sedan. The cold air chilled my bones, and I pulled the medical bracelet from my wrist, grimacing at the marks underneath before following Watson to the Sedan and hauling my luggage into the trunk before setting off, not knowing how I came to even be there in the first place. I guess right now, that doesn’t really matter. What matters is where I am now and what I’m doing. "blood strewn across the canvas, frayed brain matter sailing across my head and splattering against the wall, a woman standing in a pool of blood as the deformed creature twitches on the ground" My name is Sal “Motormouth” Sabotta, I’m a sports commentator by trade. Be it combat sports, pro wrestling, death-matches or martial arts tournament, I’ve done it all. I won’t lie; Work can be hard to come by. I’ve spent months struggling for rent and resorting to less tried-and-true commentary methods in order to survive. That has, at times, involved trying my hand at some of the more underground competitions; unregulated fights, sick, illegal games bet on by people on the dark web and worse… Things I’m not going to detail here. Things I’m not proud to have taken a hefty pay-check for from greasy, sweaty fucks in Armani tracksuits and stinking of cheap booze and coke all the way up to well-dressed bitcoin farmers in their 20s who probably own child slaves. In short, I’m no stranger to the grim underworld or the secrecies with which they conduct their work. I see money and an easy way to make it with my voice; I don’t ask questions. So when I received an email the day of my discharge from the hospital and I’m told “you’ll receive a letter from Mr. Watson, take it and follow the instructions to the venue. Pay up front as agreed.”, I don’t question it. Especially when the note is personalised, and the doctor says my medical fees were covered. We drove past numerous landscapes, vistas and neighbourhoods before veering off into an industrial estate and entering an underground tunnel. Half a mile in, Watson stops the car and peers back, smiling. He directs a thumb to the service door in the side tunnel and rubs his neck, a scar running from ear to ear. Was he a former fighter? Gangster? I sighed and got out, still in my medical gown and hauling ass to the door. It opened before I could reach out and a tall, muscular woman in her late 30s greeted me with a smile. She was imposing, powerful in her gait, a black eyepatch with several seals adorning the sides accompanying a thick scar down her face did nothing to stop her beauty. She wore a tank top with a black cloak with white fur on the tops and sleeves, a thick black chain clasp around the neck. I won’t lie; she looked badass. Terrifying, but badass. “‘Bout time ya showed up, Sabotta!” She grinned and put a cinderblock of a hand on my shoulder. I’m 5’10 and 180lbs, but she made me feel like a child in front of her. The power emanating from her fist was unbelievable. “C’mon, the trial match is starting and I don’t want no tourney without a broken in commentator! You gotta know the ropes of this place!” “You know your driver was standing right outside when I was discharged, right? Couldn’t think to give me an extra day or two to freshen up?” I frowned. This wasn’t normal protocol, even for back-alley promotions like this. She just laughed at me and slapped my shoulder. “The tournament waits for nobody, Sal. Times a-wasting.” The hallway is dimly lit and the sounds of a ruckus above us are as impossible to ignore as the sounds of thudding, screaming and snapping. As we pass several doors with one-way mirrors on the front panes, I hear sounds I could have never placed in the animal kingdom or otherwise; gurgles, clicks, grunts and even otherworldly whispers. “What the fuck is that? You guys doing animal fights down here? I mean I called a monkey fight once, but it’s not exactly… pleasant.” I shuddered, thinking of the violence chimpanzees can inflict on one another, let alone humans. She never stopped walking or staring directly ahead when she responded.“Those ain’t animals. Not by a long shot.” Before I can probe further, I’m hurried into a changing room and practically swept off my feet by her strength. I turn back and she’s already poking her head out the door. “You’ve got 5 minutes, get your shit and head up the left stairs, Watson will guide you.” She grinned, and I saw gold filings in her teeth that glinted as much as her bedazzled eye patch. “Ya came highly recommended… I expect good things!” I do as instructed and within 5 minutes I’m back in my commentary clothes; an open buttoned Hawaiian shirt with my old Hotel Inertia shirt underneath, skinny black jeans and shimmering black shoes. I found some old slick gorilla powder in my hair and dusted it up, opting for the dishevelled look as I knew I’d be sweating by the end of the ordeal. “You shouldn’t bother putting in so much effort, y’know. They’re not gonna care how good you look, only how well you talk.” Standing in the doorway was a woman in her 40s, dark-skinned and hair clad in meticulous dreadlocks, tied back into a large bun with a pair draped down the sides of her head. She held a thick book in one hand and pocketed a serrated blade in the other before motioning to me. “We’ll have to do the pleasantries on the way, the match is starting and you don’t wanna miss that. The commissioner isn’t the type you want to upset. Especially when you’re not here by choice.” I looked for a moment, dumbfounded. “I’m here because I was invited, already got my pay from the woman who let me in.” I shrugged, pocketing the envelope and getting my equipment from the suitcase. The woman gave a sad smile and shook her head. “Of course you’d think that. She likes it that way. Bet she didn’t introduce herself either, did she? C’mon.” I follow her down and after a few minutes we come to a fork in the hallway, an elevator system to our right and a stairway to the left. Dutifully, Watson stood patiently, still grinning and motioning us to go up. Once we’re situated in our booth upstairs, I set my equipment up and look down at the table, expecting a slew of papers and fighter information in front of me. I look to the woman to ask, but she doesn’t break her stare in the darkness, looking down at the arena floor some 100ft below us.“You won’t need that. Not for this match.” The lights flicker on and the enormity of this venue reveals itself to me. It’s a structure of imposing steel, dried blood, claw marks and other unknown substances that littered the 40ft wide circular pit the fighters contested in, a black lift on either side from the fighters corners that I can only assume ascended up from their locker room area. Around them were chain-link fences that rose up to the audience stands above, situating around 300 people across all four sides. At the very top sat our booth, the commissioner’s office directly opposite, the judges booth to our right and the fight analysts/medical area to our left. Standing in the centre with a spotlight over them was the commissioner, microphone in hand and an energy that was almost palpable. “Ladies, Gentlemen and Freaks of all kinds out there in the universe. I welcome you once more to the annual Nightmare Fighting Championship Tournament! It’s been a long year, but we have new blood to pit against our resident night terrors and some fresh fears to feast on the fortuitous soul that frolics into their den. As always, our contestants will be fighting for their freedom, a chance to get their wish or to fight for the ultimate prize.” The crowd cheers and the majority are hidden behind thick plexiglass and lighting, but I can see some have Karate Gi’s, weapons in hand and others with demon masks as they whoop and holler. The clientele here were, at least in my estimation, experienced. But I was feeling a lump in my throat at that one phrase The Commissioner so surreptitiously added in without issue; “As always, our contestants will befightingfor theirfreedom*”* I leaned to the woman next to me and as if she knew what I was going to ask; she put a finger up and shook her head. Eyes awash with fear and a grimness I had only seen on that of trainers who knew their fighter was not ready for the bout ahead. She pointed the finger down to my machine, then to the pit. Turning it on, I looked down as the commissioner began to talk, readying myself to commentate on whatever weirdos came up to battle. “But before we get to that, we have an exciting exhibition match for our loyal supporters who bankroll this event every year. Without you elite few, we could not do this. You are the pound for pound goats of support! Now, without further ado; let’s get this show on the road!”The rest of the lights clicked on and spun around the venue as they raised the profile of the bout, the elevators both whirring into action as the right one arose first. “In this corner, from the marionettes shop and accompanied by his Bunraku doll “Mr. Stares”, it’s the man who pulls the strings… THE PUPPET MAN!” Out steps a tall, thin Japanese man in full clown makeup. His head shaven save for two ridiculous strands of hair stretched out and fluffed up to their limits, like red antennae. His eyebrows large m’s that practically cover his forehead, the nose a completely vacant slot with a black hole drawn in and the mouth… the fucking mouth was nailed shut. Literally. Sharp rusted nails had been hammered down through the lips with such force that they’d bent. A sickening crimson red face-paint stretched across the entire bottom half of his face, making it seem far larger by comparison. He carefully held a small bundle underneath a sheet and bowed deeply to the audience before standing at his designated spot. “In the other corner, from the streets of god knows where and the womb of someone who misses him… "Hulked Up" Michael O’Donnell!” I watched with wide eyes and a stomach threatening to evacuate its contents at any moment as the smoke cleared and a boy no older than 17 rushed out, beating his chest and screaming to the crowd as if he was the Incredible Hulk. I don’t know if they drugged the poor kid, but he clearly had no idea where he was. “There are no rules, no referees and judges only exist in case of a draw or unclear victory. Our commentary team will take over and we wish you a phenomenal match.” She drools a little before she speaks again, looking up at me and winking. “Let’s make this a violent one.” She snaps her fingers and leaps for the fence, climbing up with ungodly ease before sitting on her makeshift chair in her office. I have no idea what I’m seeing but every cell in my body is urging me to run; I feel my knees tense and my frame rise ever so slightly before the woman next to me puts her hand on my thigh, pushing me down with great force. “You have a job to do, so do I. Trust me, you think you can leave but if you get out of this chair, not only will YOUR life end. Mine will too.” She unsheathes the serrated blade and looks at me with pity. “We both have a part to play here, so put the headset on and let’s do our job, no matter how hard it is.” Hands shaking, I pick up the headset and connect it to the portable recorder and take a breath. “I… I need your name. What is it you do?” I stutter, trying to calm myself. She hands me a bottle of water as the surrounding lights dim and the spotlight focuses on the spectacle below. “I’m Madame Nelle Lockwood, cryptid hunter and your co-host to guide you through tonight. Good to meet you, Sal.” - NFC EXHIBITION MATCH: "Hulked Up" Michael O’Donnell vs The Puppet Man w/ Mr. Stares “Welcome fight fans from around the world, god knows how you’re listening to this or WHY, but here we are. I’m your host Sal “MotorMouth” Sabotta, wishing this was all a bad dream. Joining me this evening is our cryptid specialist and all round badass Madame Nelle Lockwood. How are you doing, Nelle?” She looks at me with a bewildered look on her face before blinking and coming to her senses. “Uhh… good! All things considered… boy, you really have a professional knack for this, huh? I can see why Commissioner Alduin brought you in." “Ahh, yes. That’s right, folks! NFC Commissioner Alduin invited me here personally and our exhibition match proves to be… challenging. Let’s check in on the action below.” I look down and see The Puppet Man sat down and gesturing to the figure under the sheet, like he’s got a negotiation going on. The boy, undeterred and furious, rushes towards him and takes his back, slapping his head and even pulling on his hair with extreme prejudice. “Well take a gander at that, that kid has absolutely NO fear. When I was his age, I would have stayed FAR the fuck away from a nightmare spectre like that. But hell, this is all part of the show, right? Hope they’re paying that poor guy down there a sizeable sum to throw a fight to a child. What do you think, Nelle; is this the weirdest make-a-wish fulfilment task or what?” I look over to her, hoping she’d indulge me and that I could believe this was just going to end with a pissed off actor storming away when the child hit him too hard. But Nelle was scanning her now open book and looking for information on dolls. “He’s talking to his doll because it’s desperate to be let loose. He’s trying to bargain with it to spare him. This is the nature of the puppeteer and his master.” She pushes the book to the centre of the table and shows me a faded illustration of a pristine Bunraku doll; a kind of meticulously crafted Japanese take on the ventriloquist doll. The limbs are thinner and the face is more minimalist, but still no more frightening. “They usually have a symbiotic relationship, but it seems this one obeys the doll and will not want to face more punishment.” “What do you mean more punishment?” I ask, looking back down at the feverish puppet man as he tries signing frantically under the sheet, even putting his head under as the kid bites his arm and kicks him, screeching. “The nails, Sal. Those aren’t to silence him, they’re to punish him.” The rest happened in slow motion; the sheet fell down. The puppet man stood up and walked to his side of the fighters corner, facing the elevator and placing his face into his forearms as he shook. The boy followed to keep attacking, but with one swift kick to the midsection, the boy was propelled back to the centre of the pit where the doll sat. If there was a human face, I didn’t see it. Instead, I was staring down at a small wood carved spider, the head sporting black geisha hair and the makeup still present, but rows of sharpened black teeth protruded from the clicking mouth and two larger eyes jutted out from the base of the skull, smaller ones dotted closely around it. It was like seeing a puppet ogre spider. “Looks like The Puppet Man has let Mr. Stares out to say hi and I can certainly see why he was under that sheet, this one isn’t pretty folks! The face doth fit the name. The question is, what’s he doing to do ne- “I didn’t need to finish the question. My hands shook, and the world spun around me as this creature crawled towards the still wheezing boy with ungodly speed and perched itself expertly beside him. I don’t know if it was my eyes or the distance from where I sat, but this was NOT a small puppet. He was easily half of the boy’s height and that became more unnerving when he reared up on his back legs, the head clicking up and the raspy voice hissing out like a gas leak in a building. “Hey, hey, kid! Wanna make a deal?” The kid rubbed his eyes, seemingly realising where he was as he calmed down and an air of utter confusion around him. “If you let me be your new master and you promise to take care of me, I’ll let you go!” His head spun around and the jaw clicked ferociously as he giggled, extending out a clawed paw. “Whaddya say?” The boy, still confused, slowly reached out his hand and the moment immediately reminded me of a slew of nature shows I’d seen as a kid; where a predator waits until the prey is lulled before striking. I felt the chill up my spine as he extended his hand and grabbed Mr. Stares. In that moment, he leapt up the arm and bore his way into the boy’s mouth, down his throat and shredded his flesh. The sound was so horrifying, so visceral that it outshines any backyard stabbing, joint snap or broken nose. The boy didn’t even have time to scream, he simply looked up with tear-stained eyes as the puppet disappeared. Then he started walking without him realising. He looked down at his limbs, terrified, looked over at The Puppet Master, who still had his head to the elevator and pleaded with someone, anyone to help him. I looked to Nelle who refused to take her eyes away, studying the battle in an almost morbid scientific curiosity, detached entirely from the scenario. I couldn’t fathom how she did it, how she ignored this boy begging us to get him out of there. I wanted to. Every instinct in me as a fight fan and a decent human was to scream “STOP THE FIGHT!”. But clearly, when my own life is at risk and money is involved... I am not a decent human. Instead, with bile in my throat and a sweating forehead, I did my job. “M-My goodness! The P-uppet, I mean, “Mr. Stares” has BECAME the puppet master, surely the fight will be over with our young competitor incapacitated? What does our commissioner have to say about this?” She stared at me, her one eye gleaming and her face elated with the violence. “It ain’t over yet, church boy. We haven’t even seen the finale, have we Puppet Master?!” She laughs and slaps her knee, the puppet master sobbing as he sinks to the floor and she continues. “He ain’t done feeding, not yet.” The way she said that word “feeding” nearly made me lose what food I had in me. That was a young man, somebody's baby boy… “What does she mean by that, Nelle? What is the strategy to victory here?” Nelle looked down at her book and traced her finger across a passage before wiping her forehead and pushing the locks aside. If her composure wasn’t breaking yet, it would do soon. “This kind of parasitic doll feasts on its prey and targets non-essential organs first, controls the host with the neurotoxin in its tail and then, when it’s finally content, it gives the brain a second injection.” “What happens then?” I asked, my own professionalism hanging on by a fucking thread at this point. She shook her head and pinched the bridge of her nose.“I guess you’ll see in a moment, I sure as hell don’t want to. Not again.” Before I can prompt her further, the boy lets out an ear-piercing shriek and falls to his knees, gripping at his head before it turned red, then purple and finally an ugly shade of puce before… The sound of a watermelon hitting the ground from a great height is the best comparison you’re going to get without making me want to rush to the toilet to puke for a third time. But that’s what happened. His head burst and chunks of his skull, flesh and brain matter sprayed the pit and the walls, some hitting my desk and making me audibly shriek, much to the commissioner's delight. “HA! You didn’t run! I like you, Sal. You pass for the tournament!” She hauls her body up and slams down to the pit, applauding as the microphone descends from the heavens. “And your winner; The Puppet Man and Mr. Stares!” The crowd erupts with applause as the weeping puppet man pulls the blood-soaked puppet out, places him under the sheet and silently begins to walk back to the elevator while attendees clear up the boy’s corpse. “What… what the fuck IS this place?” I ask Nelle, pausing my recording. “This is where nightmares are kept and set upon mostly unwilling competitors for the world’s amusement. You HAVE done dark web fights before, right? Mafia snitches being put into lions pits, bum fights, addicts fighting women to score… this can’t be THAT unusual to you?” I stared at her incredulously. Was that even a question? “I did the dark web ONCE and it damn sure didn’t involve monsters!” She scoffs and closes her book, stretching before looking at me with contempt. “Oh, it did. Just not the ones you hear about in fairytales. Good luck with the selection process. I’ll be back for the opening round. Don’t try to run, they’ll devour us both in minutes, if you think this is the pinnacle of what lurks beneath this club, you're in for a rough night.” She sauntered off, leaving me deflated, sickened and terrified. Unable to leave and frustrated to the point of tears that I couldn’t express that concoction of emotions, I did what I always do; I regressed and pressed “record” on the device as Commissioner Alduin continued. At that moment, however, I was deaf to it all. The gravity of the situation had fully enveloped me… They weren’t kidding about the unwilling participants, I just didn’t realise I would be one of them.On every side of me sits men and women with a desire for violence that goes beyond the norm, beyond the sane and beyond the boundaries of humanity.Below me are an untold number of creatures rattling their cages and howling for blood. Across from me is a woman so powerful she could crush my skull beneath her boot with the utmost ease if it so amused her. That invitation was nothing more than my own ransom note in pretty colours and flattering platitudes. I was in a tournament housing nightmares incarnate. And it would only get more violent from here on out. - The opening round was a blood bath.
tl/dr: Don't sell, do the math for a secured loan. About 4 years ago, I capitulated that I was never going to get out of debt. As soon as one debt was paid down, an emergency would arise, and debt would get loaded back up. After food, nearly all of my payments were to meet minimum debt servicing. Any extra would go to the highest interest rate. I looked to bitcoin, and realized it was money that couldn't be taken from me in the event I defaulted on these cards, mortgage, hospital bills, etc, which was a distinct possibility if my health failed for longer than a week or two. In a worst case scenario, if I had bitcoin, I would have some money no one could take from me in a judgment. So, I sacrificed even further, and completely hopeless about the debt, I stopped paying more than the monthly minimums. I started putting all left-over money aside into bitcoin, seeing its meteoric rise in 2017. It wasn't a lot at first, thankfully, because I got burned when the bubble popped in December 2017, so after that, I picked a number that I thought bitcoin was worth, and I kept buying it weekly anytime it was below $10k. When it was above $10k, I would put that money to pay down one of the debts more than its minimum. I initially had a plan to sell some of the bitcoin I'd been saving - at the end of 2020, I could sell what I'd bought through 2018 for the best capital gains rate, and then I'd pay my debt down even further. Now that we're nearing the end of 2020, I've been forced to re-evaluate my plan, because my outlook on money and bitcoin has completely changed over the past 3 years. In addition to building my bitcoin nest egg, I've managed to to pay off 1/4 of my debt, refinance my house at a lower rate, build up an emergency fund, continue to DCA into bitcoin, handle multiple emergencies that have arisen, and survived the Covid lockdown. These are things I never would have been able to do without a changed mindset. Bitcoin is currently 15% over my DCA, and if I were to re-peg a bitcoin value for the next 4 years, I'd put it's low value at $35k, with highs near $100k. So why would I sell, even to clear debt, when the future value is ridiculously more than any interest I'd save paying down debt? Even if I used the extra monthly liquidity from removing a debt, my DCA would still rise dramatically, because any more dips below $10k are becoming unlikely. So I did some math; if I secure a $5,000 loan with 1 bitcoin, at 10% interest over 12 months, that's $500 interest to pay. The credit card it's paying off would be $800 interest over the same time, with ~$200/month min. payments, and it would take much longer than 1 year at those payments. Even if I can't do more than $200/month payments on the bitcoin loan, the margin call at the end of the loan would be for less bitcoin than I had planned to sell at the end of this year, which wouldn't have paid off the loan fully to begin with. Much less bitcoin lost if the price rises anywhere near predictions. I have enough in my emergency funding to prevent a margin call before the loan is due (if bitcoin drops to $7500), and I have enough monthly cash flow now to make $500/month payments without further sacrifice. This way, I can spend my bitcoin and keep it, too. Roll that $500 total interest paid into the DCA, and it's barely anything at all. At the end of it, I've saved over $300 in C.C. interest, cleared more unsecured debt, and kept my bitcoin. This is the best of all worlds. Then I can do it again to take care of my last unsecured loan, and be debt free (except mortgage) without selling any of my capital. I can almost see the light at the end of the debt tunnel, guys. The math doesn't seem to work on the mortgage - not yet, anyway. But my plan-B has changed folks - so long as I'm capable of working, I'm not selling bitcoin, ever. When I can't work anymore, I hope to have enough bitcoin saved up to live off of, and soon I can get there even more quickly.
The 7th floor, mastering yourself and riding the higher energies
Previous post. - So what you in for, brother? - Eternity. - Ooooh. That's a really long time. Must've did some really bad shit. - Yeah. I sold my soul. - Hope you got something good for it. - As a matter of fact I got nothing for it. - Well that's a really bad deal if you ask me. - Well I'm not asking you. - Doesn't really matter though. Can't sell your soul anyway. - Oh really? Why do you say that? - Cause it doesn't really belong to you in the first place. No way no how. - So who does it belong to? - It belongs to God. That universal spirit that animates and binds all things in existence. Hmph. Devil gonna try to confuse you, but that's her game. But in the end you gonna see clear who and what you are and what you're here to do. Now, you gon' make some mistakes along the way, everybody does. If you just open up your heart and open up your mind heh...you'll get it. - Who are you? - Just a friend brother. Just a really good friend. Scene from the movie Bedazzled There's a lot of spiritual things on this sub and spiritual and mystic knowledge interwoven with science. At the highest levels, it's just knowledge, knowledge much of humanity is not ready for. At the highest levels real science and real spirituality need no conflict whatsoever. But, the ancients lived in a very different world and the focus was on faith and opening of the heart. Many words and ideas did not exist, many yogis had insights into phenomenal things but then had to explain in words that are just... not enough. Stories and allegories and creatures both real and made up. Still they were very clever and created incredible ways of transferring the knowledge, keeping it and so on. Who here can without googling and beyond a shadow of a doubt explain how the cellphone works? You kind of know but you don't really know it. Some people do, schematics exist, there's these towers that beam around energies, idk man, all I know is I neeeed 7G so I can download holograms by my mind OK? Leave me alone! (lol) If you tried to explain it to people from 200 years ago they would absolutely know - not think - that you're crazy, possibly even dangerous. People can talk across the oceans and the mountains with some squarish device? Instantly send photos? Oh sure! And I'm guessing they can even fly around while eating tasty foods and looking down at the Earth? You need your dome checked. But anyway, as you start to master your sexual energies by first not being a complete out of control degenerate staring at all the titties and assess and eating way too much food and garbage food etc, you're now starting to totally change your power levels, your blood purity and state etc. This is all explained here brilliantly by some great people. And the knowledge is out there in many ways, check out my previous posts to find books as well to download. So, what of the higher energies? Once you've mastered yourself to a degree on the lower levels you will start to naturally move into those realms. You are anyway attracting and creating things, even in your worst state. In your optimal state, things move faster and better, but also all the previous work now come to shine and if you haven't done it you will create havoc. The movie Bruce Almighty brilliantly and in a comical way deals with this. Though the movie is on one level a simple comedy, anyone well versed in the ancient lore, gnostic knowledge and his own experiences will clearly see the many deeper messages. Bruce Nolan is a television field reporter for Eyewitness News on WKBW-TV in Buffalo, New York, but desires to be the news anchorman. When Bruce is passed over for promotion by his rival, Evan Baxter, he becomes furious, his actions leading to his dismissal from the station, followed by a series of misfortunes. Bruce complains to God that "He's the one that should be fired". Bruce receives a message on his pager, which takes him to an empty warehouse where he meets God. In the empty room at the floor level, he sees this sign. https://preview.redd.it/ey07b2fapno51.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=878c28a8463a2395fb27a4d171133c800ff6d202 There doesn't seem to be anything else in the room except the sign "stairway" and a guy moping the floor. The guy is God himself, portrayed as Morgan Freeman. https://preview.redd.it/qc8svcj2qno51.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=06b57c8e0c052df21471128b3767083989149707 An interesting conversation plays out: - You’re looking for room 7. - Yeah, I figured. - Want me to even those up for you? (Bruce's pants) - How do I get to room 7? - That’d be on the 7 th floor. (this is obviously obvious, but that's why it's emphasised. The main character wants to get to the 7th floor - have control and success in his life - but keeps avoiding the obvious - the climb up there) - The stairs are right over there. - I’d rather take the elevator. (a shortcut, like all the other shortcuts in his life) - Out of order. - Love the stairs though, they were my second choice. - You mind giving me a hand with this floor? (God asks him for help cleaning up the floor but Bruce of course is "busy". He postpones it and God says - I'll hold you to it) - What? That’s good. Are you serious? Oh, I… I’m kinda busy. Amm… Raincheck? - I’ll hold you to it. (....) - I’m trying to fix a light. - Tell me if it’s working. - Yeah. Seems to be. Kinda bright though. - Yeah. It is to most people who spend their lives in the dark trying to hide from me. - Oh, the elevator’s broken, huh? - Yeah, but… I’ll get around to it. https://preview.redd.it/pp5nkzmwrno51.png?width=608&format=png&auto=webp&s=b54136584c5b72945a697f0179129dbb4e3dfcee On the 7th floor there's only a ladder leading up to an opening - the 8th floor above the 7th chakra from which God, still dressed as the janitor, comes down. The light is stunning, super-powerful. God then reveals to Bruce that he knows everything, and by that he means literally everything - every thought he ever had, every lie, truth, bluff, etc. It's symbolically all in a file cabinet. The last file is a taunt to God given by Bruce. Now, God gives Bruce the joystick of his life - the shortcut that he's been looking for. He gives him utter and direct power over reality itself, except other people's free will. As everyone carries in him a spark of that One, they have freedom of choice - that's the rules of the game. He also can't just tell anyone he has these powers. Bruce is initially jubilant with the powers, using them for personal gain, such as by getting his job back, and impressing his girlfriend, Grace Connelly. Bruce finds ways of using his powers around Buffalo to cause miraculous events to occur at otherwise mundane events that he covers, such as discovering Jimmy Hoffa's body or causing a meteor to harmlessly land near a cook-off, earning him the name "Mr. Exclusive". Bruce then causes Evan to embarrass himself on-air, causing Evan to be fired in favor of Bruce as the new anchor. During this, Bruce continues to hear voices in his head. He later re-encounters God, who explains the voices are prayers, meant for God, that Bruce must deal with. Bruce creates a computerized email-like system to receive the prayers and respond but finds that the influx is far too many for him to handle —even though God has stated that Bruce is only receiving prayers from the Buffalo area— and sets the program to answer every prayer Yes automatically. Bruce attends a party celebrating his promotion. When Grace arrives, she finds Bruce kissing his co-anchor, Susan Ortega, after she forcefully comes on to him, and quickly leaves. Bruce follows her, trying to use his powers to convince her to stay but cannot influence her free will. As Bruce looks around, he realizes that Buffalo has fallen into chaos due to his actions: parts of the city believe the Apocalypse is nearly upon Earth due to the meteor strikes, while a large number of people, all having prayed to win the multi-million dollar lottery and finding they all won reducing their prize to a few dollars, have started rioting in the streets. Bruce returns to God, who explains that He cannot solve all the problems and Bruce must figure out a way himself. Bruce returns to his computer system at his home and goes about answering prayers as best he can. As Bruce reads through them, he finds a prayer from Grace, wishing for his success and well-being. As Bruce reads it, another prayer from Grace arrives, this one wishing not to be in love with him anymore. Bruce is stunned and walks alone on a highway, asking God to take back his powers and letting his fate be in his hands. Bruce is suddenly hit by a truck and regains his consciousness in a white void. God appears, and He asks Bruce what he really wants; Bruce admits that he only wants to make sure Grace finds a man that would make her happy. God agrees, and Bruce finds himself in the hospital, where doctors help him recover. Grace arrives, in which she and Bruce finally rekindle their relationship and later become engaged. Following his recovery, Bruce returns the anchor position to Evan and goes back to his field reporting, but decides to take more pleasure in the simple stories. We see that Bruce is overwhelmed and both his inner and outer reality start to totally collapse and cause pain. He has taken a massive shortcut to too much power and responsibility that he can't even handle when it comes to one city, much less the world. His failure is even bigger considering he literally has God powers and still fails - that's double the failure. Interestingly, the actor Jim Carrey claimed famously on the Oprah show he used the Law Of Attraction himself. On higher energies and higher positions, you also have higher challenges and responsibilities. People look up to you. Just because your eyes sparkle and you can now strangely influence people, what are you doing and where will it lead? The higher you go, people also expect you to be some kind of Christ like figure, with no mistakes and blemish, which is even harder. Martin Luther for example was a sure retainer, in the sense that he didn't fap, but he cheated on his wife. He was a great leader, he inspired millions and changed history - but he was human. Malcolm X famously said that in prison he "lost his sight (he started wearing glasses from reading too much) but he gained his vision!" Gandhi did his crazy niece experiment and of course did some mistakes (now mind you, weaker and lower people will not only judge you, they will even judge from the future, living in a totally different time). Connor Mcgregor is very probably a retainer in the sense he understands the benefits but he also leads a violent life and drinks etc, so he's riding these high energies and often corrupting them. That is why his life is in turmoil and has ups and downs: he's accused of rape over and over, he donates 10000$ to a dying kid, he punches and old man for disagreeing with him, he builds a shelter for homeless, he embarrasses himself in a fight etc. etc. "YoucannotdrinkthecupoftheLordandthecupofdemons too; youcannothave a part in both theLord'stable and the table of demons." Corinthians 10:21 The yogis have a brilliant story as well, thousands of years old, of a man waking up in heaven (astral reality where things immediately happen) and he turns it into hell because his mind is untrained. I hope at least the knowledge of semen retention and self mastery will truly spread and start being applied more and more in the world. Next post.
My journey with Kin and some positive/constructive thoughts for Ted and team
It's been a disappointing week for many I’m sure (other than the haters but what's new). I don't usually share my thoughts on reddit, but with the events that have transpired I just felt it was time to finally contribute to the community I've been glued to since the spring of 2018. I started purchasing Kin towards the end of 2017 (few months after ICO). Kin first caught my attention after I pulled out of Bitcoin when the bubble had started bursting. In my mind, this was such a unique proposition and I saw no other coin that matched Kin's potential at the time. I had just been a few years out of a top MBA program and studied under some of tech industries' leaders, and to me this was an opportunity of a lifetime. I loved the vision that Ted had for Kin. It was not just about elevating his own company Kik, but finding a way to level the playing field and elevating all the smaller players in the tech space. It is true that tech strategy has enabled a winner take all economy and has made it unfair for many, and I wanted to see something challenge this dangerous path we all are on. And over the years I kept purchasing Kin believing in its potential and what it stood for. Unfortunately, I may have acquired way too much with the way the trial has turned out this week. I won't lie I was extremely discouraged and angry to take a significant loss. But I'm not pointing fingers at Ted and I don't think bashing this project has ever been the right response. Being a product manager in tech, I know just how difficult it is to launch straight-forward, incremental products. To actually try something potentially revolutionary and truly disruptive, well that just takes a lot of guts and grit. From a PM and entrepreneurial angle, I have tons of respect for Ted and everyone that has been involved in moving this project forward. That was quite the fight you all put up over the years, and I know a lot of pain involved. Though it's heavy for me now, I don't think I'll end up regretting the decision to participate in this project. I'd like to think I make decent money moves with logic guiding me and emotions out of it. The decision trees I made for this project still make sense to this day. And I followed the progress and data closely - being a big believer in making data-driven decisions. But admittedly, maybe some of it was hype or emotions that made me not see this clearer. I overlooked the incumbent or "competition". Let's be real here, many of us did. But why do I say I won't have any regrets? Because how often does the common person get to participate in a potential tech revolution from the early stages. I'm not seeing any world-changing companies giving me a chance to put money in the ground stage anytime soon. Still hurts, but like I said I did my calculations and believed I took a shot at something potentially life-changing. That's how I see it. My timeline has always been that this was likely going to take at least 7 years to figure out (without external intervention). Most major tech companies took that long to figure it out (even Bitcoin took 8 years before it caught on). So it's tough to see that we may be nearing the end of the road without truly knowing what this product can do. But I'm writing this to encourage Ted and team, and hoping they will make the right moves for the project and those who supported it over the years. I remember that former moderators/ambassadors have mentioned that Ted would "take care" of those that have supported Kin. So I figured I would bring it up as Ted goes into the negotiation/"assessing options" phase. I'm not going to pretend what's the right move or what options are available (I'm intrigued by decentralization and open source but not sure if that's even an option). But hopefully it will be made with sound strategy and without emotions for the betterment of everyone involved (even those that came in after the ICO). If Ted truly believes he has the resources to make this work knowing what he's truly up against, then great, I'll keep supporting and patiently observe. But if, the resources are limited, I hope there's some creative solution that can be achieved. I'd like to think the Kin technology is still incredibly valuable and useful, and that it can be used to the benefit of all that supported it. I also don't want to see countries outside the US to run circles around the US in crypto. Basically, I wanted to throw in another train of thought other than the negative sentiments or ideal scenarios to the discussion. I gotta imagine that this whole journey has been incredibly tough for Ted and team. Having to sell Kik and endure trials of various kinds. No way I could've gone through that, and so you have my respect. I'm guessing the pressure is even higher now, but I hope you don't forget us in the next moves you make, Ted. TLDR: (1) One man's journey with Kin, and why my perception has not changed after 3 years. (2) Encouragement to Ted and team to pull off something that works for everyone.
It's very bittersweet to write this post. I'm very excited and happy moving to another area of our beautiful state, while I'm also really saddened by the current state of Boulder. I moved here a little over four years ago with a great understanding of our past and how we arrived to our current predicament. I moved here with the enthusiasm of most "tech bros" trying to change the world. I got very far in my journey, even becoming a local leader in the community. I ran the Bitcoin meetup in town for nearly three years, educating any of those in the community that wanted to better understand that technology. I'm also a veteran who uses cannabis as medicine in a scientific practice with myself. Being disciplined, informed, and active in the community, Boulder city council decided to appoint me to the newly created Cannabis and Advisory Licensing Board, better known as CLAB. This past Monday after our scheduled meeting I publicly stepped down from my position. For some reason these meetings are NOT posted to the City of Boulder youtube channel like all other Board meetings. So I figured I'd post my resignation here too, in hopes it sparks a bigger community discussion. Thanks for the four years Boulder. I didn't go to CU but I certainly got an education. It's with regret and sorrow I have to inform my fellow board members, and city staff, that I'll be resigning from my position on CLAB effective immediately following this meeting. When I applied for this position the world was a much different place and I thought I understood Boulder. From an outsiders perspective it can appear Boulder is an "Independent" entity that acts as an incubator for new ideas and perspectives of thought. As well being a very health conscience population that's built it's ideas from a learned position. I'm very sorry to say this has not been my experience over the past six months. COVID-19 has been a deadly virus that warrants our attention, however very recent CDC Fatality data shows this virus doesn't warrant the level of hysteria we see with a real pandemic. I've been to war in Afghanistan and was a first responder to hurricane Katrina, I've witnesses horror that warrants hysteria. Unfortunately the hysteria in Boulder I've witnessed is a rush to conform and push others to conform in the name of "public safety." Let me say from a veterans perspective right now. I signed up and fought for your freedom, not safety. When I was asked to perform unconstitutional acts as a first responder to hurricane Katrina, I refused that order. Similarly today I'm having to resign because I fear the governing bodies overseeing our Board is acting unconstitutional. The recent orders for 18-22 year old's that restricts their freedom of assembly is the reason for my resignation. On-top of that Boulder's quick will to turn against people's independent ability to act freely while choosing their level of safety, has me actually leaving Boulder county. Lastly this is a call for us all to wake up that contact tracing is hindering our liberties on a much more vast scale. Again I'm very sorry to have to put my fellow board members in the position to replace me so early in their campaign to properly regulate the cannabis industry. I feel this is a very important discussion and I hope you'll move to find another worthy patient advocate.
My stepmother came into my life when I was 14. I'm 25 now. I recall very vividly what her first words were to me: "You're fucking my husband." My jaw dropped. I was so shocked that I didn't react as my father embarrassingly pulled her away. Let's start off by saying she is incredibly mentally unstable. She manages extreme bipolarity accompanied with violent schizophrenia that gets triggered by alcohol - And yes, she does have an alcohol problem. Additionally, she lies compulsively and is extremely impulsive in general. I'm not new to Schizophrenics in my family, my uncle is one that unfortunately is hardly functional, so I know the disorder can be tremendously difficult. Generally, (not always) she is alright as long as there is no alcohol involved. However, as soon as she takes a drink? Cue panic attacks from me as she berates, tries to beat my father, insults me, and has tried acting violently towards myself and my boyfriend. I have many stories. Like the time she nearly got us kicked out of a restaurant because she began to berate and scream at customers and the waitstaff, who refused to serve her alcohol. I had to pay for our meal as they ushered her out the door. Or the time she kicked us out of a house we rented in the middle of nowhere and was beating up my father and screaming so loud, the cops were called. Or the multiple times she screams and cries in my shoulder (and then berates me, my father, and my boyfriend) because she drinks in public. While drunk and in public she has said many things, but not limited to: -"I'm Stalin's right hand." (She's a Uruguayan woman) - "I have 20 million bitcoins!" (Nope) - "I had sex with Pablo Escobar and he loved me and my dad (Also no) - "I love my father, he is my hero" - "My father is a murderer and I hate him!" (Man is dead) Among other white lies. Boyfriend and I made it a rule that we would no longer go out with her if alchohol is involved. But every time we go out, she tries to sneak in a bottle of wine or two and continues her same behavior. My boyfriend and I no longer want a relationship with her, but we have to be on "good terms" because my father needs this. I don't know why they haven't divorced. Last night, I complained on facebook about some dick who claimed I was a fake profile. Stepmother chimes in with "Stop saying these things to pretend to be pretty, it's not like you're Cindy Crawford or something" Wtf??? This is with her KNOWING I've struggled with insecurity and body dysmorphia all my life. She then called me, pretending to be concerned because "everyone in the comments clearly is insulting and laughing at you" When I asked he what comment she was referring to, she brushed me off. Anyway, this episode triggered a panic attack so intense my boyfriend had to hide my anxiety meds from me. My father insists that we "need to get along" and while I get that for his sake, I'm tired of suffering so much under her whim. She also often pretends she has a relationship with my estranged mother to trigger my abuse PTSD and exert control over me. And if I take my distance, she flips the fuck out and tries to turn my entire family against me (who are already unreliable). When she's good, she's great, but I don't think I can put up with these tantrums much longer. I want a relationship with my dad, but if she's around, it's often at the cost of my mental health. I love her, too, but I know she's terrible for me. I don't even know if I want her in my wedding, as she'd be a glass away from berating my boyfriend and I.
My personal experience with Innosilicon A10 Pro (6G) 500Mh ASIC ethash miner
EDIT : This is about the 5G version, not the 6G. Hello, Since there is not much consumers tests online about the Innosilicon A10 (Ethmaster) Pro (5G) at 500Mh, I decided to share my personal experience through an "anonymous" account. I bought it around April 2020, arrived in May but for personal reasons I was only able to turn it on this summer :( The A10 costs me 3242 € + 70 € power supply (Innosilicon 1400W Power Supply) + shipping. I will not reveal where I bought it because this is not an ad, but it was through an european ASIC miner reseller. I know Ethereum 2.0 is coming and I'm aware this is a gamble. I would not advise you to buy it now, especially knowing Eth 2.0 is really coming now, DeFi is pushing at the gates and I heard rumors there is a 750Mh version coming up. So, it is my first ASIC miner, I did some ZEC mining with a 4 x 1080Ti mining rig two years go.
EDIT : EthToDoge pointed out in the comments that the A10 isn't an ASIC technically speaking The A10 is basically a box crammed full of laptop GPUs and some custom firmware and made to look like the Bitcoin ASICS. [Check out the comments for more information]
The A10 mining chains reboots itself every 9 hours on average. When the A10 reboots, it goes into an autotuning mode which can take up to 2 hours, but usually around 1h. When in autotuning, it starts at 0Mh and goes to it's full speed after the autotuning, not mining much during this phase because the autotuning mode causes a lot of invalid shares, up to 20% and going down to 3% when tuning is completed. The chains temperature are around 63°C, I don't know if this is the reason of the reboot. I'll try later on to get a better air flow. I fixed the temperature issue I had by placing in a better ventilated location, temperature is now around 53°C but that didn't fixed the reboot issue. miner web interface, you can see the hashrate drop due to the random reboot Performancesettings I tried balanced and factory modes, and I didn't saw much differences in the reported speed. In a near future I'll have a try with theperformancemode but I will monitor the power consumption when trying since the A10 warns me to pay attention to that when I want to enable performancemode in the web interface. The performance mode consumes around 10% to 15% more electricity than the factory mode, without noticing any difference in the hashrate or stability. I didn't had proper tools to measure the power consumption, my A10 was plugged in an UPS and it's load went from 43% usage to 55% so I'm assuming the difference is the extra power consumption. Changing performance settings causes the miner to go into autotuning. Autoupdate The firmware check is working, but I didn't manage to use the autoupdate. I had no problem to manually download the firmware and upload it, so not really a problem. My device:
Type A10L Controller Version g1 Build Date 15th of July 2020 06:13 AM Platform Version a10l_20200715_061347
EDIT : I upgraded to the new firmware a10l_20200901_053652 but that didn't fixed the reboot issue.
So I was very skeptical at first, but Dave maybe convinced me about 10% that they have some level of capability in the direction they're suggesting. The techniques are stuff we've known, and it would require large computational resources, combined with loads of offchain data, but maybe they have taken efforts to the next level. It's my belief that govts and banks really dislike Monero. So with that in mind lets give them some small benefit of the doubt and take some creative license:
They amalgamate data from as many publicly available places, some exchanges, and resource sharing with big brother, deep state, govt agencies. Verdict: Near certainty. And I think we have long been aware that the off-chain data is where weaknesses can really creep in. Certainly we have been aware of the dragnet collection ongoing for 2 decades.
Conducting dust or poisoned output attacks on known public addresses, particularly for targets of interest. Also highly likely.
Correlation of IP addresses with on chain data? Recently mitigated with Dandelion++, but previously, medium likelyhood. Seems unlikely that they were correlating every clearnet IP/Tx, and obviously alot of us use ToI2P. But for targeted individuals, yeah probably. Perhaps they're even getting a feed of filtered dragnet IP data.
Transaction graphs. Statistically low useability unless combined with off-chain data. They're probably taking medium probability topologies and corroborating them with off-chain data, as well as poisoned outputs, to significantly increase the confidence of linkages.
Synergy. Yeah, puke, I know. But putting all that together, stripping decoys, generating sets of correlated outputs, provides some ability to gain further resolution on the tx graph, iteratively. I imagine they run countless iterations under different initial assumptions and constants tuning.
Again, they would need some serious computational power and off-chain data feeds. I also imagine that their models suffer from time-decay, especially without a constant stream of hueristic data. Notice at the end he emphasized opsec. Here, I really do believe him. So finally, lets talk opsec.
Run your own node, over Tor or I2P. Dandelion is great, but it doesn't hurt to add an extra layer.
Always generate new subaddresses for every new customer, and avoid posting them to public locations. The less opportunity someone has to turn you into a dust attack, the better. That "refund address" that you get on MorphToken? Yeah, generate a new sub-address and don't re-use it. Regularly cycle your Bisq addresses.
Limit transactions from your smart phone as much as possible.
Don't be turning around transactions immediately after the 20-block limit.
If you suspect that you may have been vulnerable or targeted for some of the above analysis, and/or that you might have a set of correlated outputs, I suggest this: Spend all your funds to self, to a NEW wallet. Yes this will almost certainly confirm their suspected linkage, because you will be doing a multiple input tx containing all of your suspected linked outputs... BUT ... it will also break their future linkage. You will now have one real output with all your funds. Over the course of weeks/months, randomly churn it. They now lose the ability to use multiple-input transactions, to create probabilistic transaction graphs on you. They will quickly lose you in the decoys.
Be PARTICULARLY carefull before depositing funds to an exchange, especially if you suspect you might have poisoned outputs.
I have mixed feelings on this. One of our selling points is default privacy made easy. A lot of what I wrote above doesn't exactly sound simple. On the other hand, crypto is about self responsibility and knowledge. Most people ought to have been adhering to at least the basics (ToVPN, new subaddresses, run your own node). But even if we give CT the benefit of the doubt, the following is still true: Newb use of Monero is far more private than ninja use of Bitcoin.
Reviewing the top 50 cryptos as of 09/15/2020 revealed some interesting items to note. Of the 50, only 7 have negative ROI. Algorand has the second highest only to be bested by ZCash. Bitcoin ROI 7,877.04% Ethereum ROI 9000% Tether ROI 0.08% XRP ROI 4,069.93% Polkadot ROI 87.20% Bitcoin Cash ROI -57.41% Binance Coin ROI 9000% Chainlink ROI 7,138.70% Crypto.com Coin ROI 753.54% Litecoin ROI 1,038.67% Bitcoin SV ROI 86.21% Cardano ROI 335.74% EOS ROI 163.89% TRON ROI 1,282.96% USD Coin ROI -0.33% Tezos ROI 440.90% Stellar ROI 2,560.94% Stellar ROI 2,560.94% Monero ROI 3,532.85% Neo ROI 9000% UNUS SED LEO ROI 9.44% yearn.finance ROI 3,411.23% NEM ROI 9000% Huobi Token ROI 221.13% Cosmos ROI -22.64% UMA ROI 1,023.37% VeChain ROI -14.13% Aave ROI 3,941.56% IOTA ROI 9000% Dash ROI 9000% Dai ROI 2.57% Wrapped Bitcoin ROI 208.08% Ethereum Classic ROI 593.27% Zcash ROI -98.60% Ontology ROI -68.73% OMG Network ROI 568.78% TrueUSD ROI 0.12% Maker ROI 1,982.73% THETA ROI 242.81% Synthetix Network Token ROI 942.33% Compound ROI 55.26% Algorand ROI -89.10% OKB ROI 288.81% FTX Token ROI 284.56% Basic Attention Token ROI 46.2% Dogecoin ROI 403.98% Kusama ROI 2,271.36% BitTorrent ROI 181.38% 0x ROI 300.37% Celo ROI 211.42% NXM ROI 515.36% What does this say? To me, it says that this coin was not only overhyped, it was and is completely overvalued as of this date. It has a near -90% ROI. In my opinion, that means early investors didn’t get what they were expecting, the pre-ICO team was way off base, and the valuation was done by persons inexperienced with the crypto space. It’s hard to see how the miss could have been so far off. 77% (approx.) of eligible buyers took advantage of the early refund process. This says a lot about confidence of returns. The auction schedule has changed which now favors early backers/relay nodes in a questionable manner. And there is no information as to the next auction which leaves relay nodes as one of the few mechanisms by which large amounts of coins are introduced into the market. Billions of coins still need to enter the market and the process is to hold off on auctions and allow relay nodes and founders to stabilize the price via timing of the introduction of coins. In short, managed demand for a product that does not have the retail demand to move the price to near introduction price. Wrapped Bitcoin had a 6 month head start and an almost 300% difference in ROI. as far as Zcash, we won’t go there. But it is interesting to note that it uses some of Micali’s work and Zooko Wilcox-O’Hearn did reference prior works by Micali re: the Goldwasser-Micali-Rivest Signature Scheme. I may have to amend my prediction of ETH displacement by several years since it’s very unclear now as to when all coins will be in the market. Think about it, would you invest in a 401k that had a ROI of near -90% ? This isn’t FUD. Where most coins provided a reasonable valuation, Algorand for some odd reason had this ridiculous valuation which exposes the inexperience relative to the crypto space. “Let’s hire some folks, tell them what we FEEL it’s worth, and get some people to market it. Oops looks like we seriously overvalued this thing.” Schedule the auctions back to the original timeline. Let the price be dictated by the market as it needs to be. This will generate the needed demand and the price/valuation will be corrected by market forces and not a select group. Sure some will lose, but some will gain in the sell off. There is no way to moon if a select group regulates the influx of coins without a competing mechanism. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. This post is for entertainment purposes only.
A couple weeks ago I initiated an exchange for transferring some of BTC to XMR with XMR.CO. I had heard from several places that they were a reputable exchange, so I decided to try it. I sent almost $100 in BTC which took a couple hours to confirm. I provided them with a valid XMR wallet and a valid BTC refund address. No status updated on the exchange page, and no money was ever transferred to my wallet. Naturally I emailed their support [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and got an automated response that they had received my inquiry. I don't include the original exchange ID on here for obvious reasons.
hello, I did an exchange on your website and sent over bitcoin and i have not received anything. I see there is over 25 confirmations now in my electrum walltet and the status on my exchange hasn't changed. What is going on?
and they never sent me an actual email. I tried responding to the automated email they sent me, and sending them a message on wickr as they state as an alternative way to contact them. I have still not got an answer as to why I am missing nearly $100. This is very frustrating, cause I don't see anything else on here stating that xmr is a scam, so I want to make sure everyone knows, so no one else gets scammed like I did. XMR.CO is a total ripoff scam, and they will take your money without giving it back. BE WARNED!!!
Cryptopearl.net - part of a well-organized crypto scam ring
Hello reddit! I've done a bit of digging into a scam ring. This all started from a random stranger messaging me today to help them get their crypto off of cryptopearl.net. They say they want to get their crypto off an exchange because they need to help their sick father who's in Egypt and has Covid, but because they moved countries recently, they can't pull it off for 9 days due to "fraud protection rules" and because all their friends are in China, they can't talk with any of their friends. Their account is geo-locked and then they ask you to mule it for them... the only catch is that you have to pay 0.03 BTC to "verify" your account on the exchange and withdraw said sum for your new pal. Said scammer says they'll totally pay you back and not to worry. Just to make sure it's obvious, anything you send to this exchange or it's ilk will be sent straight to the pocket of scammers. I've seen this site and sites like it many times over the last couple of years. I've done some digging through their site and found some very interesting stuff.
The images on their chat are all steam cdn profile pictures. And the element's class reads as "image for chat message" instead of profile picture or something a sane developer would use. It's just conjecture... but I feel like a very in-experienced developer put this together.
The description for the site: "Founded in London in 2013, the leading..." was lifted directly from cex.io (a real crypto exchange)
Whois lookup states their site was registered January 2020. A bit odd for something that exists entirely as an online-business... I guess they didn't have a site for 7 years? lol.
The dichotomy is between computationally infeasible vs informationally-theoretic infeasible. Basically:
Something is computationally infeasible if it could in theory be done, but you would not be able to build a practical computer to do it within the age of the universe and using only the power available in just one galaxy or thereabouts.
Something is informationally-theoretic infeasible if even if you had any arbitrarily large amount of time, space, and energy, you cannot do it.
Quantum breaks represent a possible reduction in computational infeasibility of certain things, but not information-theoretic infeasibility. For example, suppose you want to know what 256-bit preimages map to 256-bit hashes. In theory, you just need to build a table with 2256 entries and start from 0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 and so on. This is computationally infeasible, but not information-theoretic infeasible. However, suppose you want to know what preimages, of any size, map to 256-bit hashes. Since the preimages can be of any size, after finishing with 256-bit preimages, you have to proceed to 257-bit preimages. And so on. And there is no size limit, so you will literally never finish. Even if you lived forever, you would not complete it. This is information-theoretic infeasible.
How does this relate to confidential transactions? Basically, every confidential transaction simply hides the value behind a homomorphic commitment. What is a homomorphic commitment? Okay, let's start with commitments. A commitment is something which lets you hide something, and later reveal what you hid. Until you reveal it, even if somebody has access to the commitment, they cannot reverse it to find out what you hid. This is called the "hiding property" of commitments. However, when you do reveal it (or "open the commitment"), then you cannot replace what you hid with some other thing. This is called the "binding property" of commitments. For example, a hash of a preimage is a commitment. Suppose I want to commit to something. For example, I want to show that I can predict the future using the energy of a spare galaxy I have in my pocket. I can hide that something by hashing a description of the future. Then I can give the hash to you. You still cannot learn the future, because it's just a hash, and you can't reverse the hash ("hiding"). But suppose the future event occurs. I can reveal that I did, in fact, know the future. So I give you the description, and you hash it and compare it to the hash I gave earlier. Because of preimage resistance, I cannot retroactively change what I hid in the hash, so what I gave must have been known to me at the time that I gave you the commitment i..e. hash ("binding").
A homomorphic commitment simply means that if I can do certain operations on preimages of the commitment scheme, there are certain operations on the commitments that would create similar ("homo") changes ("morphic") to the commitments. For example, suppose I have a magical function h() which is a homomorphic commitment scheme. It can hide very large (near 256-bit) numbers. Then if h() is homomorphic, there may be certain operations on numbers behind the h() that have homomorphisms after the h(). For example, I might have an operation <+> that is homomorphic in h() on +, or in other words, if I have two large numbers a and b, then h(a + b) = h(a) <+> h(b). + and <+> are different operations, but they are homomorphic to each other. For example, elliptic curve scalars and points have homomorphic operations. Scalars (private keys) are "just" very large near-256-bit numbers, while points are a scalar times a standard generator point G. Elliptic curve operations exist where there is a <+> between points that is homomorphic on standard + on scalars, and a <*> between a scalar and a point that is homomorphic on standard * multiplication on scalars. For example, suppose I have two large scalars a and b. I can use elliptic curve points as a commitment scheme: I can take a <*> G to generate a point A. It is hiding since nobody can learn what a is unless I reveal it (a and A can be used in standard ECDSA private-public key cryptography, with the scalar a as the private key and the point A as the public key, and the a cannot be derived even if somebody else knows A). Thus, it is hiding. At the same time, for a particular point A and standard generator point G, there is only one possible scalar a which when "multiplied" with G yields A. So scalars and elliptic curve points are a commitment scheme, with both hiding and binding properties. Now, as mentioned there is a <+> operation on points that is homomorphic to the + operation on corresponding scalars. For example, suppose there are two scalars a and b. I can compute (a + b) <*> G to generate a particular point. But even if I don't know scalars a and b, but I do know points A = a <*> G and B = b <*> G, then I can use A <+> B to derive (a + b) <*> G (or equivalently, (a <*> G) <+> (b <*> G) == (a + b) <*> G). This makes points a homomorphic commitment scheme on scalars.
Confidential Transactions: A Sketch
This is useful since we can easily use the near-256-bit scalars in SECP256K1 elliptic curves to easily represent values in a monetary system, and hide those values by using a homomorphic commitment scheme. We can use the hiding property to prevent people from learning the values of the money we are sending and receiving. Now, in a proper cryptocurrency, a normal, non-coinbase transaction does not create or destroy coins: the values of the input coins are equal to the value of the output coins. We can use a homomorphic commitment scheme. Suppose I have a transaction that consumes an input value a and creates two output values b and c. That is, a = b + c, i.e. the sum of all inputs a equals the sum of all outputs b and c. But remember, with a homomorphic commitment scheme like elliptic curve points, there exists a <+> operation on points that is homomorphic to the ordinary school-arithmetic + addition on large numbers. So, confidential transactions can use points a <*> G as input, and points b <*> G and c <*> G as output, and we can easily prove that a <*> G = (b <*> G) <+> (c <*> G) if a = b + c, without revealing a, b, or c to anyone.
Actually, we cannot just use a <*> G as a commitment scheme in practice. Remember, Bitcoin has a cap on the number of satoshis ever to be created, and it's less than 253 satoshis, which is fairly trivial. I can easily compute all values of a <*> G for all values of a from 0 to 253 and know which a <*> G corresponds to which actual amount a. So in confidential transactions, we cannot naively use a <*> G commitments, we need Pedersen commitments. If you know what a "salt" is, then Pedersen commitments are fairly obvious. A "salt" is something you add to e.g. a password so that the hash of the password is much harder to attack. Humans are idiots and when asked to generate passwords, will output a password that takes less than 230 possibilities, which is fairly easy to grind. So what you do is that you "salt" a password by prepending a random string to it. You then hash the random string + password, and store the random string --- the salt --- together with the hash in your database. Then when somebody logs in, you take the password, prepend the salt, hash, and check if the hash matches with the in-database hash, and you let them log in. Now, with a hash, even if somebody copies your password database, the can't get the password. They're hashed. But with a salt, even techniques like rainbow tables make a hacker's life even harder. They can't hash a possible password and check every hash in your db for something that matches. Instead, if they get a possible password, they have to prepend each salt, hash, then compare. That greatly increases the computational needs of a hacker, which is why salts are good. What a Pedersen commitment is, is a point a <*> H, where a is the actual value you commit to, plus <+> another point r <*> G. H here is a second standard generator point, different from G. The r is the salt in the Pedersen commitment. It makes it so that even if you show (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) to somebody, they can't grind all possible values of a and try to match it with your point --- they also have to grind r (just as with the password-salt example above). And r is much larger, it can be a true near-256-bit number that is the range of scalars in SECP256K1, whereas a is constrained to "reasonable" numbers of satoshi, which cannot exceed 21 million Bitcoins. Now, in order to validate a transaction with input a and outputs b and c, you only have to prove a = b + c. Suppose we are hiding those amounts using Pedersen commitments. You have an input of amount a, and you know a and r. The blockchain has an amount (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G). In order to create the two outputs b and c, you just have to create two new r scalars such that r = r + r. This is trivial, you just select a new random r and then compute r = r - r, it's just basic algebra. Then you create a transaction consuming the input (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) and outputs (b <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) and (c <*> H) <+> (r <*> G). You know that a = b + c, and r = r + r, while fullnodes around the world, who don't know any of the amounts or scalars involved, can just take the points (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) and see if it equals (b <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) <+> (c <*> H) <+> (r <*> G). That is all that fullnodes have to validate, they just need to perform <+> operations on points and comparison on points, and from there they validate transactions, all without knowing the actual values involved.
What does this mean? It's just a measure of how "impossible" binding vs hiding is. Pedersen commitments are computationally binding, meaning that in theory, a user of this commitment with arbitrary time and space and energy can, in theory, replace the amount with something else. However, it is information-theoretic hiding, meaning an attacker with arbitrary time and space and energy cannot figure out exactly what got hidden behind the commitment. But why? Now, we have been using a and a <*> G as private keys and public keys in ECDSA and Schnorr. There is an operation <*> on a scalar and a point that generates another point, but we cannot "revrese" this operation. For example, even if I know A, and know that A = a <*> G, but do not know a, I cannot derive a --- there is no operation between A G that lets me know a. Actually there is: I "just" need to have so much time, space, and energy that I just start counting a from 0 to 2256 and find which a results in A = a <*> G. This is a computational limit: I don't have a spare universe in my back pocket I can use to do all those computations. Now, replace a with h and A with H. Remember that Pedersen commitments use a "second" standard generator point. The generator points G and H are "not really special" --- they are just random points on the curve that we selected and standardized. There is no operation H G such that I can learn h where H = h <*> G, though if I happen to have a spare universe in my back pocket I can "just" brute force it. Suppose I do have a spare universe in my back pocket, and learn h = H G such that H = h <*> G. What can I do in Pedersen commitments? Well, I have an amount a that is committed to by (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G). But I happen to know h! Suppose I want to double my money a without involving Elon Musk. Then:
(a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G)
== (a <*> (h <*> G)) <+> (r <*> G)
== ((a * h) <*> G) <+> (r <*> G); remember, <*> is also homomorphic on multiplication *.
== ((a * h + a * h - a * h) <*> G) <+> (r <*> G); just add 0.
== ((a * h + a * h) <*> G) <+> ((-a * h) <*> G) <+> (r <*> G)
== ((2 * a * h) <*> G) <+> ((r - a * h) <*> G)
== ((2 * a) <*> (h <*> G)) <+> ((r - a * h) <*> G)
== ((2 * a) <*> H) <+> ((r - a * h) <*> G); TADA!! I doubled my money!
That is what we mean by computationally binding: if I can compute h such that H = h <*> G, then I can find another number which opens the same commitment. And of course I'd make sure that number is much larger than what I originally had in that address! Now, the reason why it is "only" computationally binding is that it is information-theoretically hiding. Suppose somebody knows h, but has no money in the cryptocurrency. All they see are points. They can try to find what the original amounts are, but because any amount can be mapped to "the same" point with knowledge of h (e.g. in the above, a and 2 * a got mapped to the same point by "just" replacing the salt r with r - a * h; this can be done for 3 * a, 4 * a etc.), they cannot learn historical amounts --- the a in historical amounts could be anything. The drawback, though, is that --- as seen above --- arbitrary inflation is now introduced once somebody knows h. They can multiply their money by any arbitrary factor with knowledge of h. It is impossible to have both perfect hiding (i.e. historical amounts remain hidden even after a computational break) and perfect binding (i.e. you can't later open the commitment to a different, much larger, amount). Pedersen commitments just happen to have perfect hiding, but only computationally-infeasible binding. This means they allow hiding historical values, but in case of anything that allows better computational power --- including but not limited to quantum breaks --- they allow arbitrary inflation.
Changing The Tradeoffs with ElGamal Commitments
An ElGamal commitment is just a Pedersen commitment, but with the point r <*> G also stored in a separate section of the transaction. This commits the r, and fixes it to a specific value. This prevents me from opening my (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) as ((2 * a) <*> H) <+> ((r - a * h) <*> G), because the (r - a * h) would not match the r <*> G sitting in a separate section of the transaction. This forces me to be bound to that specific value, and no amount of computation power will let me escape --- it is information-theoretically binding i.e. perfectly binding. But that is now computationally hiding. An evil surveillor with arbitrary time and space can focus on the r <*> G sitting in a separate section of the transaction, and grind r from 0 to 2256 to determine what r matches that point. Then from there, they can negate r to get (-r) <*> G and add it to the (a <*> H) <+> (r <*> G) to get a <*> H, and then grind that to determine the value a. With massive increases in computational ability --- including but not limited to quantum breaks --- an evil surveillor can see all the historical amounts of confidential transactions.
This is the source of the tradeoff: either you design confidential transactions so in case of a quantum break, historical transactions continue to hide their amounts, but inflation of the money is now unavoidable, OR you make the money supply sacrosanct, but you potentially sacrifice amount hiding in case of some break, including but not limited to quantum breaks.
I bought $1k of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018. Result? -74%
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 31 -74% See the full blog post with all the tableshere. tl;dr: purchased $100 of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, repeated in 2019 and 2020, update y'all monthly. July was very strong for crypto. For 2018 Top Ten: ADA finished the month on top. ETH and XRP also very strong. Overall, BTC still waaaay in the lead and is approaching break even point. Three cryptos (IOTA,NEM, DASH) have lost over 90% of value. Over three years, cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.
A) Bitcoin B) Ethereum C) Bitcoin Cash D) XRP Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and July Winners and Losers
Not a ton of movement for the 2018 Top Ten group this month. Cardano and XRP both climbed one position while NEM gained two, clawing itself back into the Top Thirty. Dash headed in the other direction, dropping two places in the rankings. Considering all that has changed in the world of crypto since the beginning of 2018, it’s interesting to note that only four out of the ten cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether,BSV, and newcomer CRO. July Winners – It was a very strong month: all cryptos made significant gains in July. But for the third month in a row ADA outperformed the field, gaining +57% in July. ETH finished a close second, up +55% followed by XRP which gained +52%. July Losers – Even during a good month, NEM can’t catch a break. Its +23% gain made it the worst performer of the 2018 Top Ten. How has your favorite crypto fared over the first 31 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment? Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (7) but look at this: thanks to its strong 2020 including three straight monthly wins, Cardano is now right behind BTC with 6 monthly wins. Which project has the most monthly losses? NEM stands alone with 6. Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month. It came close this month, gaining “only” +26%.
Overall update – BTC approaching break even point, second place ETH in the lonely middle, NEM still worst performing.
Although it wasn’t able to keep pace with its peers in July, BTC continues to slowly but surely approach its break even point. It is down about $1,500 (-12%) since my purchase in January 2018. My initial investment of $100 thirty-one months ago is now worth about $88. Even though Ethereum has lost half of its value since the experiment began, it is all alone in second place: no other crypto is close. NEM seems comfortable in its usual place, down at the bottom. It has lost -94% over the life of the experiment. That initial $100 investment in NEM is now worth $5.78. Dash and IOTA join NEM as the only three cryptos in the Top Ten that have lost at least -90% of their value since January 2018.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
Total market cap since Jan 2018 The crypto market added about $82B in July, making up a ton of ground. The last time we saw a similar level in terms of overall crypto market cap was way back in the fifth month of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment: May 2018.
Le Bitdom since January 2018 Since Bitcoin receives much of the attention in the press, it may surprise the casual observer to learn that Bitcoin Dominance dropped quite a bit in July, especially considering BitDom had been stuck at roughly the same level for most of 2020. This signals an interest in altcoins and a willingness to buy into riskier cryptos. Some context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:
The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained over $70 in July 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $260, down -74% from January 2018. This sounds horrible but don’t hang yourself with a celibate rope: the 2018 return on investment is back where it was about a year ago. Take a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context: Yes, you may notice that the 2018 Top Ten portfolio has finished over half of the first thirty one months down at least -80%, but it’s nice to see the low -70s for a change. So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -74%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let’s take a look:
So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,6965 ($260+ $1,722 +$1,713). That’s up about +23% for the three combined portfolios, compared to -10% last month. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I added this metric this year. The previous high was +13% back in January 2020. Having trouble visualizing? Don’t worry, I got what you need: Combined ROI So, a +23% gain by dropping $1k on whichever cryptos were in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years, fine. But what if I’d done the same with just one crypto? Bitcoin always wins, right? Thanks to Reddit user u/sebikun for the idea for a new metric and let’s take a look: 3-year club ROI As you can see, only five cryptos have remained in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Best one to have gone all in on at this point in the Experiment? Ethereum, which would have nearly doubled. Worst choice? If I went with XRP, I would have been down -23%.
Comparison to S&P 500:
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The US economy continued to recover in July: the S&P 500 is back up to pre-COVID levels. The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $220 had it been redirected to the S&P. But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$220
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$310
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$10
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,540. That is up over+18%since January 2018, compared to a +23% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. That’s a 5% swing in favor of theTop Ten Crypto Portfolios! As you’ll see in the table below, this is the first time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed the S&P had I taken a similar investment approach. This is a big turnaround from the 22% difference in favor of the S&P just last month. 3 x $1k crypto vs. S&P
The 2018 Top Ten Cryptos have consistently under-performed when compared to the overall crypto market. This month, for example, the total market cap is down -29% from January 2018 compared to the -74% loss for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. At no point in the first 31 months of the Experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the 2018 Top Ten as a group have under-performed the overall market every single month. This of course suggests that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked every crypto, or different cryptos: throwing that $1k on January 1st, 2018 to Bitcoin, for example, would have lost me -12% instead of -74%. On the other hand, this bit of diversification has served me well compared to going all in on NEM, Dash, or IOTA, all of which are down at least -90%. The follow-on Top Ten experiments in 2019 and 2020 have seen similar, but not identical, results. There have been a few examples of the Top Ten approach outperforming the overall market in the first 19 months of the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And up until the last few months of the most recent 2020 Top Ten Index Fund group of cryptocurrencies, this approach had outperformed the overall market 100% of the time.
Crypto had an undoubtedly strong month in July, green across the board. Was this just a happy blip, are we in for some consolidation, or are we on the way up? Stay tuned. Final words: take care of each other, wear your mask, wash your hands. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
The only time im let out of the house is for school, uni, family trip.Now, I still live with them because they enroll me in a uni near our house. I got accepted to one of the best uni in my country and they told me to reject it; it wasnt because they cant afford my uni fee but rather because they dont want me to leave home. I tried a scholarship as well to persuade them but even when all costs are paid for they still refused to let me go; 17 when I started uni and need parents acceptance letter. Also, they never gave me pocket money because they think its unnecessary for me when I can just ask them for things. The first time they gave me money was now-lunch money. In a month, I get around $100 because they said that I only need to buy lunch. I always try to save around $40 to a paypal account so i can have the chance to move out (ii never go out and have friends, so they dont see the point of checking it) . Usually i end up buying bitcoins to make it even more untraceable because im scared that theyll found out and get mad. Sometimes, I starve myself for lunch because I can eat dinner at home and this causes me to lose weight (i thought was a good thing; they always say im fat). Seeing im becoming thinner they would bring me to a buffet and force me to eat till i feel like im about to burts (they dont know im starving myself to save money; they thought i was stressed). On campus, I have socializing problems (i was enrolled in the same school from kindergarten-high school, since most people knows me from childhood they didnt think it was weird for me to skip activities and not socialize much). If they know theyll probably make me dropout of uni. they arent against the idea of me dropping out because as I quote from them they like it best when Im at home and they can monitor me(they keep telling me that if i want to withdraw myself from society its fine). They even put a 360 camera in my bedroom. Sometimes the things they do make me feel like they want me to be a doll to just sit at home and be a decoration. The reason why I finally talked back was because both my parents are gaslighting me about accidentally ordering me the wrong food. I literally have no problem with it because the food itself isnt bad, so I was acting fine but then they kept on trying to get me upset. And I guess the build up of not being able to say anything snap today, so I said ”yeah you get the wrong food so annoying I dont even want to eat this” and now theyre mad and give me an hour long lecture on why im such a disappointment and that should not talk back. I see myself as TA and feel so bad but I really am so tired of how controlling they are in every aspect of my life (i dont have friends that i can consult about this because they said friends arent necessary in life and only that i only need them). So yeah, AITA? - it would also be nice if you guys can recommend me online jobs that have a payout to paypal. Thank you.
Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020
Midway along the journey of our lifeI woke to find myself in a dark wood,for I had wandered off from the straight path. Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund $733 769
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund $41 794
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund $78 533
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund $110 771
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) $216 758
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) $64 542
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) $237 138
Telstra shares (TLS) $1 540
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) $6 043
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) $121 976
Secured physical gold $19 535
Ratesetter (P2P lending) $8 998
Bitcoin $177 310
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) $17 421
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) $2 759
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) $4 477
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%) Asset allocation
Australian shares 41.5%
Global shares 22.6%
Emerging market shares 2.2%
International small companies 2.8%
Total international shares 27.6%
Total shares 69.2% (5.8% under)
Total property securities 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds 4.4%
International bonds 8.9%
Total bonds 13.3% (1.7% under)
Gold and alternatives 17.2% (7.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January. The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March [Chart] The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent). Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan. As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events. Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less. Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue. My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions. As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation. This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure). This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below. [Chart] The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings. Mapping the sources of portfolio variances Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements. For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded. Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value. Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements? The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation? This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
The problem may solve itself as portfolio grows - Growth and continued investments in the portfolio will tend to reduce the variance caused by gold and Bitcoin. The asset allocation targeting approach I adopt has seen continued contributions to equities, reducing the ability of these alternative assets to add to future variance.
Falls in Bitcoin or gold values will also solve the problem - Conversely, price falls in Bitcoin or gold will tend to reduce the variance issue, and such price falls have significant precedents, with for example Bitcoin holdings falling to a value of around $50 000 as recently as January 2019.
If neither of these happen, there may be bigger issues to solve - The only scenario where neither of these alleviating factors occur is should gold and Bitcoin continue to rapidly appreciate compared to other assets, in which case it is difficult to see the value of reducing exposure now.
Does Bitcoin even fit the asset allocation model? - Bitcoin in particular is not a well established or accepted asset class as yet, so it may not be appropriate to apply traditional allocation rules to it - it may be functioning more as a hedge or option against extreme states of the world. Linked to this is the high degree of volatility in Bitcoin. Adopting too tight a target on Bitcoin holdings would potentially see a need to buy and sell Bitcoin frequently, where my intention is to actually never purchase any more.
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic. Tracking course drift in the portfolio components As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities. Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations. The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target. [Chart] This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation. This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case. A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached. Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions. At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses. [Chart] Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed. Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary. Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample. For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1% Summary What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected. What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above. It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019. This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under. In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies. The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month. This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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BITCOIN: Thinking About Selling NOW? FIRST You NEED to See This Chart! MIND BLOWING!
Bitcoin is having a weekend pump & it’s looking like a major BTC breakout will happen by Monday. Is this the 9k Pump moonbois have been waiting for? Or will the bear’s be saying I told you so ... $11,700 AND THEN NEW ALL TIME HIGH FOR BITCOIN?!! 🚀🚀 Crypto TA Today & BTC Cryptocurrency Price News - Duration: 19:07. Crypto Kirby Trading 9,675 views New This feature is not available right now. Please try again later. Published on Jan 11, 2020. BTC online ... #Buy Bitcoin Near Me #Buy Bitcoin With Prepaid Card #Buy Bitcoin Cash #Bitcoin panic is slowly spreading as many fear a major correction is near. Before you sell any of your $BTC you need to see this incredible #BTC Golden Bull... Here we take a look at the "fair value" of BTC heading into the halving. Historically the price is around this long-term logarithmic regression curve. Sorry for the poor audio quality, will get it ...